Midterms Become a Referendum on Trumps Presidency

WASHINGTON/DALLAS — With just under eight weeks to go before the American congressional elections, Donald Trump is entering the decisive political phase of his second term. At an unusual Republican midterm convention in Dallas, the president is trying to rally the party firmly behind him and mobilize his supporters for November 3. Yet it is precisely Trump’s dominance that poses a strategic problem for Republicans: while his supporters are indispensable for defending the party’s narrow congressional majorities, his low approval ratings, widespread concerns among Americans about the economy, and the war with Iran could drive moderate voters away from the party.

The Republican Party is betting on an experiment. On Wednesday, a two-day national party gathering begins in Dallas — a format not previously customary ahead of congressional elections. Normally, major national party conventions in the United States are reserved for presidential elections. There, candidates are nominated, political platforms are presented, and the party is united behind the campaign for the White House. In 2026, however, no president is up for election. Donald Trump nevertheless wants to create the impression that his name is on the ballot.

The event in Dallas is therefore less a classic party convention than a mix of campaign rally, political showcase, and mobilization of the MAGA movement. Within Republican circles, it has already earned a nickname: “Trump-a-Palooza.” Trump is scheduled to speak on both days. Vice President JD Vance, members of the Trump family, congressional candidates, and numerous prominent Republican Party figures are also appearing. According to the Associated Press, more than 100 speakers have been announced. For Trump, this is about far more than an ordinary midterm election.

On November 3, Americans will decide the composition of the entire House of Representatives and part of the Senate. If Republicans lose their majority in either chamber, the president’s political capacity to act could change significantly for the second half of his term. A House controlled by Democrats could block legislative initiatives, intensify investigations into the administration, summon administration officials before committees, and exert considerable pressure on the White House through its budgetary authority. The midterms are thus Trump’s most important domestic political test since his return to the White House.

Trump Wants to Break a Historical Rule

Midterm elections are traditionally difficult for the party of the sitting president. American voters regularly use the midterms to express their satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the administration. Presidents can therefore suffer significant losses in Congress even when they themselves are not up for election. Trump knows this problem from his first term.

In the 2018 midterms, Republicans lost their majority in the House of Representatives. Democrats gained 41 seats at the time and took control of the chamber. This had immediate consequences for Trump’s administration: committees under Democratic leadership were given far-reaching investigative powers, and the political conflict between the White House and Congress intensified. In 2026, Trump wants to prevent a repeat.

Reuters reports that the president and the Republican Party are deliberately trying to overcome a typical midterm problem with the Dallas convention: a president’s supporters often turn out in smaller numbers at the polls when their preferred presidential candidate is not himself on the ballot. Trump is therefore trying to personally charge the midterms with significance. The message is clear: even though his name is not on the ballot, his supporters should treat the election as if it were. But herein lies precisely the political risk of the Republican strategy.

For Republicans, Trump Is Both Mobilizer and Risk

Within the Republican Party, there is hardly any doubt that Trump continues to command an extraordinarily loyal political base. His ability to bring voters to rallies, mobilize donations, and influence Republican primaries has fundamentally transformed the party. But a congressional election is not decided solely by the MAGA base.

Especially in politically contested suburbs and districts, Republican candidates also need independent voters and moderate conservatives. It is precisely there that a close association with Trump can become a problem. According to Reuters, several Republican candidates from particularly competitive races are not attending the event in Dallas.

Officially, scheduling conflicts or campaign obligations in their own districts are sometimes cited as reasons. Politically, however, the absence is nonetheless notable. The Republican strategy thus faces a classic dilemma: without Trump, part of the conservative base might stay home. With too much Trump, swing voters could be deterred. Added to this are the president’s approval ratings.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll cited by Reuters recently put Trump’s approval at just 33 percent. For Republican candidates in close districts, such a number is problematic. They must simultaneously benefit from the energy of the Trump movement and avoid being held fully responsible for dissatisfaction with the president.

Democrats are trying to establish exactly this connection. Their goal is to prevent the election from appearing as a collection of individual local congressional races, and instead present it as a national referendum on Trump’s second term.

The Economy Could Decide the Election

At the center of this is the economic situation. For many Americans, political debates about Washington matter less than the question of how much they are paying for groceries, housing, energy, insurance, and other everyday expenses. In Dallas, by contrast, Republicans want to highlight Trump’s economic policy record. This includes tax cuts, investments in the United States, lower drug prices, and the administration’s trade and tariff policy.

Trump regularly argues that his policies are bringing production and jobs back to the United States. But many voters’ economic perception is more complicated. High living costs remain a political burden. At the same time, Trump has launched a far-reaching trade conflict with several U.S. partners. The recent escalation with Canada shows how closely foreign trade and domestic politics are now intertwined.

From the administration’s perspective, tariffs are meant to protect American producers. Critics, on the other hand, warn that higher import costs can at least partly land on American businesses and consumers. For the midterms, it therefore matters less which macroeconomic indicator Washington presents. What matters is whether American households feel, come autumn, that they are economically better or worse off. In election campaigns, perception is often just as important as statistics.

The Iran War Becomes a Political Stress Test

A second issue is weighing on Republicans: the war with Iran. The military escalation has not only foreign policy but increasingly domestic political consequences. Oil prices have risen to more than $100 per barrel as a result of the recent hostilities. This creates a dangerous link for Trump between foreign policy and the cost of living.

Rising energy prices can affect gasoline, transportation costs, airfares, and ultimately numerous everyday goods. A foreign policy crisis can thus turn into an economic campaign issue within a few weeks. It is particularly notable, then, what barely appears on the agenda of the Republican convention.

The Associated Press reports that numerous domestic policy issues — such as taxes, border security, and a possible ban on stock trading by members of Congress — are set to be addressed. The unpopular war with Iran, by contrast, is not at the center of the program. This is also notable because Trump built his political movement over the years under the banner of “America First.”

A key part of that message was criticism of prolonged American military engagements abroad. Within the MAGA movement, there is therefore a political tension between traditional national-security Republicans and those supporters who back Trump’s movement precisely because of its skepticism toward foreign interventions.

The longer the conflict lasts and the higher the economic or human costs become, the harder it could become for the White House to hold these different groups together.

The House of Representatives Is the Immediate Danger

For Trump, defending the House of Representatives is especially important. All 435 seats will be up for election on November 3. The majority is narrow, which means relatively small shifts can change control of the chamber. What will be decisive is not the deeply Republican or deeply Democratic districts. The battle is concentrated in a comparatively small number of districts where both parties have realistic chances.

These include suburban regions, districts with many independent voters, and areas where the political composition of the population is changing. For Democrats, this represents an opportunity. They do not need to spark a nationwide political revolution. Gains in just a handful of competitive districts could be enough to shift the balance of power in Washington.

For Trump, losing the House would be far more than a symbolic defeat. Democratic committee chairs could launch investigations into his administration, demand documents, and summon administration staff to hearings. Political control over budget matters would also become more difficult. A Democratic majority could not completely stop Trump’s agenda, but it could significantly hinder its implementation.

The Senate Remains the Second Major Front

At the same time, both parties are fighting for control of the Senate. There, the political consequences are especially far-reaching, because the Senate decides on the confirmation of key administration officials and federal judges. An opposition majority could therefore significantly complicate the president’s personnel decisions. Particular attention is paid to a limited number of races that could decide the majority.

Reuters identifies nine Senate races as particularly relevant to the question of which party will control the chamber in the future. Texas, too, has become an unusually important political battleground in this regard. It is no coincidence that the convention is taking place in Dallas.

Texas has for decades been considered a Republican stronghold in presidential elections. But demographic changes in the major metropolitan areas and political shifts in the suburbs have made the state more competitive. The Senate race there is therefore drawing national attention.

Trump’s political network is already intervening with considerable financial resources. According to the Associated Press, MAGA Inc. has a war chest of around $400 million. Ten million dollars of that has been earmarked for the Senate race in Texas. This shows how seriously Republicans are taking the situation.

A $40 Million Show in Dallas

The sheer scale of the convention itself also makes clear the importance Trump places on this election. Reuters puts the cost of the two-day event at more than $40 million. For an election in which no president is being nominated, that is extraordinary. The event is meant to produce images normally associated with presidential campaigns: large arenas, prominent speakers, patriotic staging, and a president presenting himself as the center of his political movement. Trump is set to play the leading role on both evenings.

The first day is dominated by his speech. On Thursday, Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to appear first, before Trump once again closes out the convention. This demonstrates unity within the party on one hand. On the other, the event shows just how dependent the Republican Party has become on a single political figure. Trump has dominated the party for more than a decade. Many of its candidates, positions, and campaign strategies are directly or indirectly oriented around him. Yet due to the constitutional two-term limit, Trump cannot be elected president again in 2028.

This is already sparking the next debate.

What Comes After Trump?

While the cameras in Dallas are focused on Trump, Republicans are increasingly discussing the future of the movement behind the scenes. Reuters reports that party officials, strategists, and donors are already grappling with the question of who could inherit Trump’s political legacy. The most prominent name is JD Vance.

The vice president has positioned himself within the MAGA movement as a possible successor. He combines economic populism, a hard line on immigration policy, and skepticism toward the Republican Party’s traditional foreign policy positions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is also being considered as a potential 2028 candidate.

Rubio represents, in part, a different Republican tradition. He has strong foreign policy credentials and was already a presidential candidate in 2016, before Trump came to fully dominate the party. The question, therefore, is not only who will succeed Trump. It is about which parts of Trumpism will remain permanent features of the Republican Party.

Will the tough tariff policy remain? Will the departure from traditional free trade remain? Will restrictive immigration policy remain? Will the confrontation with Washington’s political and economic institutions remain? And can MAGA mobilize the same number of voters without Trump?

The midterms could provide the first answers. Should Republicans defend their majorities despite Trump’s low approval ratings, this would further strengthen his position as the party’s dominant figure. Should they instead suffer significant losses, a debate is likely to begin immediately over whether the strong personalization around Trump has become a structural problem for the party.

Trump Promises Personal Campaign Effort

The president himself has so far shown no willingness to hold back. Trump has announced that he will get intensively involved in the decisive congressional races. According to the Associated Press, he recently told Republican lawmakers that the party has a winning message and should aggressively promote his political record. Trump has also indicated he intends to personally campaign in around 35 decisive races. That is a substantial number.

This means that, in the coming weeks, the president will effectively become the most important Republican campaigner in many parts of the United States. For candidates in conservative states, that can be an advantage. In politically contested regions, the calculation could be more complicated. Republican candidates must therefore decide case by case how closely to be seen publicly alongside Trump. This very tension is already visible in Dallas.

Financial Markets, Too, Are Watching November 3

The significance of the midterms extends beyond Washington. Investors, too, are beginning to price in possible shifts in political majorities. Reuters reports that American stock markets remain near record highs despite geopolitical risks and the upcoming election. At the same time, market observers warn that the unusually low volatility could be underestimating the actual political risks.

A shift in the congressional majority could affect tax policy, regulation, government spending, and the White House’s economic policy agenda. Historically, September and October in midterm years have also repeatedly been marked by greater fluctuations in stock markets. The election is therefore not only a decision about political power. Companies and investors must simultaneously assess which parts of Trump’s economic policy agenda could still be implemented under a changed congressional majority.

November 3 Will Decide Trump’s Second Half

Officially, Donald Trump is not up for election on November 3. Politically, however, his name looms over nearly every decisive race. Republicans have made their strategy visible in Dallas: they are not trying to distance themselves from the president. They are betting on mobilizing his political movement once more at maximum strength. That can work.

Trump continues to command a loyal base, enormous media attention, and a political organization willing to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in the decisive races. But the same strategy carries considerable risks. His low approval ratings, concerns about the cost of living, the escalating war with Iran, and uncertainty over the economic consequences of his trade policy give Democrats several lines of attack. This is why the 2026 midterms will become more than an ordinary congressional election. They will become the first major verdict of American voters on Trump’s second presidency.

A Republican victory would give Trump two more years in which a Congress controlled by his party could support large parts of his political agenda. It would also confirm the thesis that the MAGA movement can mobilize enough voters even without Trump himself on the ballot. A defeat — especially the loss of the House of Representatives — would, by contrast, immediately change the balance of power in Washington. And it would raise a second question that, in Dallas, still remains largely hidden behind the staging of party unity: how long can a party remain entirely organized around Donald Trump while simultaneously having to begin thinking about a future without him? The answer to that question may begin on November 3.

As of: September 9, 2026

Sources: Reuters, Associated Press, and the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Images: White House Gallery